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Preds face painful reality of being a small-market, small-revenue NHL franchise

DAVID SHOALTS, The Globe and Mail, Jul. 19 2012

The reality of being a small-market, small-revenue NHL franchise clubbed the Nashville Predators over the head in the wee hours of Thursday morning.

No matter how carefully you spend your money, how carefully and how smart you draft and develop players, build hope in your fan base for better days ahead, sooner or later one of the big boys is simply going to reach over and grab your lunch.

It happened for the second time in two weeks in the early morning hours of Thursday when the Philadelphia Flyers signed superstar defenceman and restricted free agent Shea Weber to a 14-year offer sheet worth $110-million (all currency U.S.), according to a TSN report. This came on the heels of seeing Weber's defence partner, Ryan Suter, depart as a free agent to the Minnesota Wild for a 13-year, $98-million contract.

The Predators' Big Three will become the Big One unless Nashville general manager David Poile convinces his owners to match the Flyers' offer. He has seven days to do so but this will be difficult, as the offer supposedly has $68-million in signing bonuses in the first six years, a big swallow for a perpetually scuffling franchise like the Predators.

In a statement released by the Predators Thursday afternoon, Poile repeated an earlier assertion that he would match any offer sheet extended to Weber. But, he added, "due to the complexity of the offer sheet, we will take the appropriate time to review and evaluate it and all of its ramifications in order to make the best decision for the Predators in both the short and long-term." Poile said he will have no further comment until a decision is made within the next seven days.

It seems it was only a few weeks ago that Poile stood up proudly at a press conference and announced goaltender Pekka Rinne just signed a seven-year, $49-million contract. Poile followed that by saying he planned to keep Weber and Suter in the fold by signing them to similar contracts.

This raised a number of eyebrows, given the Predators' commitment to building through player development rather than big spending because the owners do not have deep pockets. But Poile seemed sincere and he did try hard to keep Suter from leaving with what the player's agent called a substantial offer.

In the end, though, Suter's comments after he signed with the Wild made it look like he never intended to stay. And Poile's emotional reaction ("I will never, ever understand that.") underscored the frustration of all small-market operators in trying to compete with the big-money teams.

Now, less than two weeks later, Poile has the same old pain.

However, one way to look at this is Weber, 26, is making it easy for the Predators to keep him. By signing the Flyers' offer sheet, he created a contract for what he and his representative believe he is worth for the rest of his NHL career and all the Predators have to do to keep him is match it.

There is no doubt Poile wants to match it. He said one of the biggest regrets of his career as an NHL GM came in 1990 when he was running the Washington Capitals and let another superstar defenceman who was the prototype for Weber, Scott Stevens, depart through an offer sheet with the St. Louis Blues.

The fistful of first-round draft picks that came as compensation for losing Stevens never matched the departed star's value. If Weber leaves, the Predators can get four first-round picks in the NHL entry draft but that, too, is small beer for a defenceman who is among the best two or three at his trade. With Weber in the lineup as a way-more-than-adequate replacement for the concussed and aging Chris Pronger, the Flyers will finish high enough to leave Poile with four picks at the end of the first round.

But just as it is today, the Stevens decision was not in Poile's hands. Abe Pollin, who owned the Capitals at the time, did not want to pay Stevens the big money. The Predators owners may want to pay Weber but the question is whether they can. We will find out in seven days.

It can also be asked if Poile and his owners really want to match the offer. Another view, and the more likely one, is that by signing it Weber indicated he doesn't want to stay in Nashville. Weber's move indicates he knows the team will never move into the top echelon of contenders because it will never be able to afford the best talent.

This leaves the Predators facing another unpleasant reality. Just as the team seemed to be moving ahead as a playoff contender and the fans in another of the league`s non-traditional markets were responding, they were reminded the Predators are not a destination franchise for the best players.

On the Philadelphia side, the move is obviously one more effort by management to squeeze in one more rich, long-term contract on the chance such deals will be banned in the next collective agreement. It is also one more reminder hypocrisy comes easily to NHL owners.

Flyers chairman Ed Snider is an important member of the NHL`s bargaining team in the labour negotiations. This is the same group that presented the players with an offer last week that essentially said all of the economic fixes needed to shore up the small-revenue teams should come out of the players` pockets with about a 22-per-cent cut in their share of NHL revenue plus severe restrictions in their ability to sell their services on the open market.

This, of course, didn`t stop Snider from casually stepping on one of the poor relatives when he needed to replace Pronger.

Dean
M.Ed (Coaching)
Ch.P.C. (Chartered Professional Coach)
Game Intelligence Training
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